aus: Homepage, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, Washington, D.C., 1. Februar 2007 (www.aicgs.org/analysis/c/langguth020107.aspx)

How Long Will Angela Merkel’s Grand Coalition Last?
By Dr. Gerd Langguth

Angela Merkel has become an international star.  Forbes magazine recently named her the most powerful woman in the world and she stands out as the most important leader in a Europe of weak or lame duck leaders. Germany's relations with the United States, its most important ally, have improved since Merkel's assumption of office. What has changed is the atmosphere for dialogue with President Bush, as the possibility for it has been restored - along with a personal relationship with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. With regard to substantial issues of foreign policy Germany has only gradually altered its course at least in style and to some extent in substance as well.

However, while the Chancellor is riding high abroad, at home her image and power seem less impressive. Domestically the grand coalition is not very popular, although the economic situation is improving and unemployment has decreased. But will Angela Merkel stick it out for the entire four years of her term? As far as German politics is predictable, this question can be answered with a clear 'yes.' Merkel is currently solid in her position. This also became evident at the most recent CDU party convention in Dresden, where she received 93 percent of a secret ballot, while her potential inner party rivals only received 68 and 58 percent. Currently it does not look as if there will be a change in coalition partners towards the traffic light composition (red-yellow-green), nor in the direction of Jamaica's national colors (black-yellow-green). With respect to current opinion polls, the SPD should not have much of an interest in early elections, which are further complicated by a number of hurdles in the German constitution. Only after the important state elections of 2008 in Lower Saxony, Hesse, and Bavaria will the possible political constellations for the federal election in 2009 emerge.

The two big people's parties, or Volksparteien, are currently low in the opinion polls - and both have to deal with a severe decline in membership. While Helmut Kohl's term in office saw a peak of 626,000 CDU members, by the end of his tenure only 560,000 remained; the SPD decline is even steeper. The decrease in membership signals a declining interest in politics as a whole - and also in the concept of the Volkspartei. There were times when both big parties could claim support from over 90 percent of West Germany's population. Presently it is a mere 70 percent.

Merkel finds herself in a structural dilemma: she is the only party chairman to also be a member of the federal cabinet. Bavarian Edmund Stoiber, who will vacate his positions as chairman of the CSU and Ministerpräsident of Bavaria this fall, declined to enter the federal cabinet despite initial consideration. Vice-Chancellor Müntefering (SPD) vacated his position as chairman of the SPD early on during the coalition negotiations. Merkel's weakness is simultaneously the strength of the entire CDU: out of sixteen state governors, eleven are from the CDU. Additionally, the CDU is represented in three out the five remaining state governments as a member of grand coalitions. Only in the states of Berlin and Rhineland-Palatinate, SPD chairman Kurt Beck's home state, does the CDU not govern. As Beck is not part of the cabinet, he can play the role of 'libero' or sweeper. He is more in the position to build an individual profile for the SPD within the boundaries of the grand coalition than the Chancellor is able to do for her own party, although she is the chairperson.

Consequently, many of the CDU are asking themselves, what is the specifically Christian-Democrat profile of this party? Towards what goal are they working? I wrote in my biography of Chancellor Merkel, "Angela has a certain determination for power. This is what she has in common with Kohl and Schröder. Through perseverance she strives towards realizing top performance. This is her life's gratification. She seeks self-affirmation in accomplishments others recognize." And further: "The scientist, free of ideology is a generalist without a fixation on history. She assumes it is the efficient 'functioning' that makes a society, while underestimating the significance of long etching experience and patterns of behavior, which are not part of rational thinking." These claims are supported in her political practice. The national health care reform is the most evident example, which has now been realized after months of a painstaking political process. Not only did Merkel underestimate the people's fears, but she placed this necessary reform on top of the agenda so early that it became a matter of personal prestige.

Helmut Kohl and Gerhard Schröder never immersed themselves into the details of a policy field as much as Merkel has. This is to say that she is a perfectionist. In my opinion, this has to do with her 'model-pupil syndrome': she was always the best in her class. Although she let her schoolmates copy her work and was therefore considered 'sociable,' she always wanted to be better than others. It was the only way a pastor's daughter could enter high school and move on to the university in a communist system. Translated to the current time, she wants to prove that in contrast to her teammates - including current statesmen - she knows the details of politics. However, her perfectionism and love for detail impedes strategic thinking. While Merkel is not a pronounced strategic thinker, and in comparison to Kohl also no predictor of history, one needs to recognize this practitioner of power's basic political conviction. She was molded by her life in the former East Germany and knows more than many West Germans about the necessities and regimentation of the economy and politics. To her, the norm of 'freedom' is the top priority.

During its first few months the grand coalition enjoyed widespread popularity among the German people. This reflected the German nonpolitical yearning for consensus. Throughout the federal election campaign Schröder let his reform agenda, which his own constituency had perceived as rigorous, be widely forgotten.  Some had voted for the SPD as it stood for social conservatism. Angela Merkel, in contrast, stood for reform.  This has resulted in the paradoxical situation where a rather 'progressive' left ultimately developed into a conservative force in Germany, while a conservative Christian Democrat politician is perceived as 'progressive' - pushing for change. But German society is structurally, which does not mean party-politically, rather conservative. Those who want change generate fear, especially with the impact of globalization, and that is their dilemma. This will be on Angela Merkel's mind as she confronts the remainder of her term.

Professor Dr. Gerd Langguth is professor at the University of Bonn and recently wrote a biography of Chancellor Angela Merkel.  For more information on the book, check his website, available by clicking here: www.gerd-langguth.de

This essay was translated into English by Constantin Sprengel.